How will the climate have changed by 2050?

Dr Ross Cameron from the University of Sheffield explained how climate change would affect gardens between now and 2050. He was talking yesterday at the HTA Garden Futures conference.

Changes in the weather between now and 2050: -

• Warmer winters (+3 degrees C) and summers (+1 to +4 degrees C)
• More rain in the winter (+5% to +30%), less rain in the summer (-20% to -40%)
• More severe weather events such as heatwaves, droughts or rainstorms
• There will be fewer frosty mornings. The number of frosts has steadily declined since 1960.   There will be no frosts in 100 years, except the odd extreme event, often out of season.

How will gardens have to adapt?

• By 2050 half the gardens will rely on irrigation in the summer. Currently it is only a few in the South East
• Fewer frosts will extend the growing season
• There will be a wider range of species of plant that can be grown. But these will tend to me more drought resistant
• More outdoor living
• Water capture and recycling will become more important
• There will be more green walls and sustainable drainage systems at home (SuDS)
• 100 years ahead we might see the end of the lawn, being replaced by informal naturalistic styles.

How the garden industry might benefit?

Plants are likely to become more important to policy makers because they can mitigate the effects of climate change. There could even be legislation to prevent run off and to ensure more planting, because: -

• In town, parks are 6% cooler than ‘urban heat islands’
• Play areas are cooler if there is a tree in the corner
• Houses covered by vegetation lose 38% less energy.